期刊名称：CORE Discussion Papers / Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
出版年度：2007
卷号：1
出版社：Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
摘要：We forecast income growth over the period 2000-2050 in the US, Canada, and France. To ground the forecasts on
relationships that are as robust as possible to changes in the environment, we use a quantitative theoretical approach
which consists in calibrating and simulating a general equilibrium model. Compared to existing studies, we allow for
life uncertainty and migrations, use generational accounting studies to link taxes and public expenditures to
demographic changes, and take into account the interaction between education and work expericnce. Forecasts show
that growth will be weaker over the period 2010-2040. The gap between the US and the two other countries is
increasing over time. France will catch-up and overtake Canada in 2020. Investigating alternative policy scenarios, we
show that increasing the effective retirement age to 63 would be most profitable for France, reducing its gap with the
US by one third. A decrease in social security benefits would slightly stimulate growth but would have no real impact
on the gap between the countries.
关键词：aging, forecast, computable general equilibrium, education, experience
