期刊名称：CORE Discussion Papers / Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
出版年度：2007
卷号：1
出版社：Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
摘要：A recent phenomenon is the rapid spread of Antidumping (AD) laws mainly amongst developing
countries (i.e. China, India, Mexico). Between 1980 and 2003 the number of countries in the world with
an AD law more than doubled going from 36 to 97 countries. This proliferation of trade protection laws
amongst developing countries is likely to have substantial implications for trade as recently shown by
Vandenbussche and Zanardi (2007). The purpose of this paper is to use a duration analysis to investigate
the determinants leading a country to adopt an AD law. We also analyze the related question of what
explains the heterogeneity between countries that can be observed in terms of the time between adoption
and their first use of the AD law. We find strong evidence that retaliatory motives are at the heart of the
proliferation decision as countries that were targeted by AD actions of traditional users in the past (i.e.,
US, EU) are much more likely to adopt an AD law. Also, our evidence suggests that past trade
liberalization substantially increases the probability of a country to adopt an AD law. In addition, we find
that the size of the chemicals sector and the extent of steel imports are positively correlated with the
probability to adopt. The amount of inward FDI on the other hand has a clear negative effect on the
probability to adopt. While short term macroeconomic factors like GDP growth and exchange rate
volatility seem to matter less for adoption, asymmetric regional shocks and the development level of a
country seem to raise the probability of starting to use an AD law. Our results are robust to several
specifications of duration models.
