期刊名称：CORE Discussion Papers / Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
出版年度：2007
卷号：1
出版社：Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
摘要：We propose a new theory of the demographic transition based on the evidence that body development during
childhood is an important predictor of adult life expectancy. Fertility, childhood development, longevity, education
and income growth all result from individual decisions. Parents face a trade-off between the number of children they
have and the spending they can afford on each of them in childhood. These childhood development spending will
determine children longevity when adults. It is in this sense that we refer to Wordsworth's aphorism that "The Child is
Father of the Man". Parents face a second trade-off in allocating their time between increasing their own human
capital and rearing children. The model displays different regimes. In a Malthusian regime with no education fertility
increases with adult life expectancy. In the modern growth regime, life expectancy and fertility move in opposite
directions. The dynamics display the key features of the demographic transition, including the hump in both
population growth and fertility, and replicate the observed rise in educational attainment, adult life expectancy and
economic growth. Consistent with the empirical evidence, a distinctive implication of our theory is that
improvements in childhood development precede the increase in education.
关键词：life expectancy, height, human capital, fertility, mortality.
