期刊名称：CORE Discussion Papers / Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
出版年度：2008
卷号：1
出版社：Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
摘要：Competition, security of supply and sustainability are at the core of EU energy policy. The
Commission argues that making the European gas market more competitive (completing the
internal gas market) will be instrumental in the pursuit of these objectives. We examine the
question through the eyes of existing models of the European gas market. Can model tell us
anything on this problem? Do they confirm or infirm the analysis of the Commission
appearing in fundamental documents such the Green Paper, the Sector Inquiry or the new
legislation package? We argue that results of existing models contradict a fundamental
finding (paragraph 77) of the Sector Inquiry. We further elaborate on the basis of the
economic assumption underlying the models, that changing the assumptions implicitly
contained in paragraph 77 cast doubts on a large part of the reasoning justifying the
completion of the internal gas market. We also explain that models could help arriving at a
better definition of the relevant market, which is so important in the reasoning of the
Commission. Last we also find model results that question the effectiveness of ownership
unbundling. As to security of supply, we explain that models can also contribute to assess the
value of additional infrastructure in the context of security of supply, but this potential seems
largely untapped. Last we note that sustainability has not yet penetrated models of gas
markets. We conclude by suggesting other area of immediate concern, possibly of higher
technical difficulty, that modellers could address in future research.
