期刊名称：CORE Discussion Papers / Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
出版年度：2009
卷号：1
出版社：Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (UCL), Louvain
摘要：In this paper we carry out a preliminary exploration of a time scales¡¯ conjecture,
which postulates that ¡°reasonable¡± notions of sustainability must include a suitable
synchronisation of time scales of both the processes of human development and
those of the natural environment. We perform our analysis within a coarse, five
variable, model of man-nature interactions expressed as a system of differential
equations where production and human capital are coupled with both renewable
and non-renewable natural resource. We demonstrate a phenomenon that we name
the ¡°sustainability screw¡± that describes a spiral like trajectory of the three key
variables: non-renewable and renewable resources as well as the production
capital. Under many plausible scenarios, this spiral tends unacceptably fast to an
undesirable equilibrium. However, we also show that by adjusting the ratio of
¡°intensity of production effort¡± and ¡°intensity of abatement effort¡±, parameters of
the relative time scales of production and natural recovery processes can be altered
in a manner that produces, arguably, more sustainable tra jectories.
关键词：sustainable optimization systems, viability, multiple time scale.
