出版社：Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Department for Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy
摘要：The Croatian economy was considerably weaker in the third quarter of 2008 than
previously expected. The seasonally adjusted GDP dropped by 0.5 percent over the second
quarter. A similar decline could be expected in the fourth quarter, indicating that the
Croatian economy actually fell into recession in the second half of 2008. Here we refer
to the technical definition of recession as two consecutive quarters of GDP decline based
on seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures. Our estimate on activity decline in the
fourth quarter is supported by the latest figures for industrial production, retail sales,
and merchandise exports that are available up to November 2008 and indicate a notable
weakness in the economy. On the positive side, the financial system has been fairly
resilient to the negative spillovers from the global financial crisis, partly due to additional
Government’s and central bank’s measures.
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