出版社：Institute of Economics, Zagreb, Department for Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy
摘要：The financial crisis that originated in the U.S. has affected the rest of the world economy
through a number of channels. Volatility on financial markets has put severe strains on
banking systems resulting in tighter credit conditions, weaker business and consumer
confidence, and a sharp downward revaluation of stock markets. Consequently, the real
sector activity around the globe has slowed down substantially. A number of developed
economies entered recession by the end of 2008, while emerging markets that have led
global growth in recent years seem to be increasingly affected by the global downturn.
The latter also applies to emerging economies in Europe, especially those exposed to high
external imbalances. In its January 2009 forecast, the European Commission projects that
world GDP growth will slow down from 3.3 percent in 2008 to 0.5 percent in 2009, before
recovering to 2.8 percent in 2010. The euro area is already in recession, following a fall
in GDP for the second consecutive quarter (0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2008). The
Commission forecasts that GDP will fall by 1.8 percent in 2009 in both the EU and the euro
area before turning moderately positive to around 0.5 percent in 2010. Inflationary pressures
have eased worldwide as oil and other commodity prices recorded a steep decline over the
past months due to worsening global demand and the reduction of market speculations.
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