期刊名称：Departmental Discussion Papers / University of Glasgow, Department of Economics
出版年度：2009
卷号：1
出版社：University of Glasgow, Department of Economics
摘要：We develop a tractable general theory for the study of the economic and demographic impact of epidemics, and
notably its distributional consequences. To this end, we develop a three-period overlapping generations model
where altruistic parents choose optimal health expenditures for their children and themselves. The survival
probability of (junior) adults and children depends on such investments. Agents can be skilled or unskilled. The
model emphasizes the role of orphans. Orphans are not only penalized in the face of death, they are also
penalized in the access to education. Epidemics are modeled as one period exogenous shocks to the survival
rates. We specifically study the consequence of a negative shock on adult survival rates in the first period. We
prove that while the epidemic has no permanent effect on income distribution, it can perfectly alter it in the short
and medium run. In particular, the epidemic may imply a worsening in the short and medium run of both
economic performance and income distribution. Two opposite mechanisms are isolated: first, the survival rate of
children at the end of the first period decreases relatively more in poor than in wealthy families. This decreases
the proportion of junior adults with a low endowment of human capital in period 2. Secondly, the number of
orphans in period 1 increases in both families. This decreases the proportion of junior adults with a low
endowment of human capital in period 2. Therefore, the proportion of the unskilled will necessarily increase in
the medium run if orphans are too penalized in the access to a high level of education.
关键词：Epidemics, orphans, income distribution, endogenous survival, medium-term dynamics
