期刊名称：Discussion paper / Centre for International Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
电子版ISSN：1445-3746
出版年度：2005
卷号：1
出版社：Centre for International Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
摘要：This paper provides new estimates of the global gains from multilateral trade reform and
their distribution among developing countries in the presence of trade preferences.
Particular attention is given to agriculture, as farmers constitute the poorest households in
developing countries but the most assisted in rich countries. The latest GTAP database
(Version 6.05) and the World Bank¡¯s LINKAGE model of the global economy are
employed to examine the impact first of current merchandise trade barriers and
agricultural subsidies, and then of possible reform outcomes from the WTO¡¯s Doha
Development Agenda. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade
would boost real incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa proportionately more than in other
developing countries or high-income countries, despite a terms of trade loss in parts of
that region. Net farm incomes would all rise substantially in that and other developing
country regions, thereby alleviating rural poverty. A Doha partial liberalization could
move the world some way towards those desirable outcomes, but more so the more
developing countries themselves cut applied tariffs, particularly on agricultural imports.
关键词：Trade policy reform, WTO, multilateral negotiations, computable general
equilibrium, developing countries
