期刊名称：Discussion paper / Centre for International Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
电子版ISSN：1445-3746
出版年度：2005
卷号：1
出版社：Centre for International Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
摘要：This paper examines the extent to which various regions, and the world as a whole, could
gain from multilateral trade reform over the next decade. The World Bank¡¯s LINKAGE
model of the global economy is employed to examine the impact first of current trade
barriers and agricultural subsidies, and then of possible outcomes from the WTO¡¯s Doha
round. The results suggest moving to free global merchandise trade would boost real
incomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia (and in Cairns Group countries)
proportionately more than in other developing countries or high-income countries. Real
returns to farm land and unskilled labor, and real net farm incomes, would rise
substantially in those developing country regions, thereby helping to reduce poverty. A
Doha partial liberalization could take the world some way towards those desirable
outcomes, but more so the more agricultural subsidies are disciplined and applied tariffs
are cut, and the more not just high-income but also developing countries choose to
engage in the process of reform.
关键词：Trade policy, WTO, Doha Development Agenda, multilateral negotiations,
computable general equilibrium modeling
