期刊名称：Discussion Paper Series / Department of Economics, Monash University
出版年度：2007
卷号：1
出版社：Monash University
摘要：We examine patterns in fertility during the demographic transition using a panel data set across
25 Asian countries for 1975-2003. The adult female literacy rate is used as an instrumental
variable for the endogenous female labor force participation rate, which has been unsolved in the
population literature. The preliminary panel data analysis suggests that relative cohort size is
significant in explaining the decline in fertility before controlling for simultaneity bias. This
result, however, may be spurious. After considering the instrumental variables estimation in the
panel data structure, the age structure variable no longer plays a dominant role in explaining
declining fertility rates in many Asian countries. Systematic differences were found between
East and South Asia. A policy implication in South Asia is that development may reduce fertility
directly through increasing income rather than indirectly through a change in female labor force
participation or urbanization. In East Asia, the indirect effects dominate.
关键词：Fertility, Easterlin hypothesis, Transition Economies, Relative Cohort Size, Age
Structure
