期刊名称：Discussion Paper Series / Department of Economics, Monash University
出版年度：2009
卷号：1
出版社：Monash University
摘要：An empirical assessment shows that Malaysia¡¯s business cycle indicators can be improved. Turning point
detection is not impressive, especially for troughs. Lead times are also variable. However, the relationship
between the leading and coincident indicators over the entire cycle shows quite strong correlations from the
late 1980s onwards, although lead times have shortened. Empirical evidence is very strong that the leading
index Granger-causes the coincident index. Business and consumer confidence surveys also show much
promise in improving prediction of the reference cycle. However, implications of the changing economic
structure on the performance of the leading index needs to be fully taken into account, especially the
emergence of new services sector activities.
