期刊名称：Discussion Paper Series / Department of Economics, New York University
出版年度：2007
卷号：1
出版社：New York University
摘要：Arguments for a prominent role for attention to the growth rate of mone-
tary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy are often based on references
to low-frequency reduced-form relationships between money growth and in¡ãa-
tion. The \two-pillar Phillips curve" proposed by Gerlach (2004) has recently
attracted a great deal of interest in the euro area, where it is sometimes sup-
posed to provide empirical support for the wisdom of a \two-pillar strategy"
that uses distinct analytical frameworks to assess shorter-run and longer-run
risks to price stability. I show, however, that regression coe¡Àcients of the kind
reported by Assenmacher-Wesche and Gerlach (2006a) among others are quite
consistent with a \new Keynesian" model of in¡ãation determination, in which
the quantity of money plays no role in in¡ãation determination, at either high
or low frequencies. I also show that empirical results of this kind do not in
themselves establish that money growth must be useful in forecasting in¡ãation,
either in the short run or over a longer run. Hence they provide little support
for the ECB's monetary \pillar."
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