摘要：The proposed risk sensitive minimum requirements of the new Basel capital accord have raised
concerns about possible (acceleration of) procyclical behaviour of banking, which might threaten
macroeconomic stability. This paper analyses the interaction between business cycles and bank
behaviour over the past two decades for 26 industrial countries. As expected, profits appear to
move up and down with the business cycle, allowing for accumulation of capital in boom periods.
Provisioning for credit losses rise when the cycle falls, but less so when net income of banks is
relatively high, which reduces procyclicality. Lending fluctuates with the business cycle too, but
appears to be driven by demand rather than by supply factors such as (shortage of) capital, which
contradicts the assumptions underlying capital crunch theory. All in all, over the last decades,
distortion caused by procyclical behaviour of banks has been limited, banking crises excepted.
关键词：profits, credit loss provisioning, lending, business cycle, credit crunch, bank lending
channel, balance sheet channel, financial stability, procyclicality;
