期刊名称：Document de Travail / Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales
出版年度：2007
卷号：1
出版社：Paris
摘要：While demographics have long been identified as a key variable in long term macroeconomic analysis, most previous analyses have relied on deterministic population forecasts. But, as several recent papers testify, demographic developments are uncertain, and attempts at describing this via scenario-based variants have serious shortcomings. Macroeconomic consequences of demographic uncertainty have not been explored in a multi-regional setting of the world economy so far, but they can be of considerable interest. The asynchronous nature of the ageing process is expected to influence macroeconomic trends, but it is also of interest that the uncertainty of population forecasts differs across world regions.
In this paper, we investigate the impact of demographic uncertainty in a multi-regional general equilibrium, overlapping generations model (INGENUE 2). Specifically, we consider the level of uncertainty in each of the ten major regions of the world, and their correlation across regions. In order to address these issues, we produce stochastic simulations of the world population for the ten regions until 2050. Then, we analyse the economic consequences on a path by path basis over the period 2000-2050.
The stochastic simulations of population allow us to assign probability to the different population paths that we generate. The economic simulations performed with the INGENUE 2 model allow us to assess the uncertainty induced into key macroeconomic variables, the GDP growth rate and the world interest rate in particular, by uncertain future demographics. We show that the assumptions regarding interregional correlations of forecast errors are crucial in this multi-regional model: they have a large impact on the uncertainty of the macroeconomic variables: we illustrate this point by focusing on the world interest rate dynamics. Furthermore, it appears that the macroeconomic adjustments can differ substantially if we consider independence or high correlation across the regions. In particular, the macroeconomic behaviour of the agents in the current account/saving problem differs significantly across regions according to the degree of interregional correlation.
关键词：Computable General Equilibrium Models; international capital flows; life cycle models and saving; demographic trends and forecasts.
