摘要：This paper uses survivor fan charts to illustrate the prospective density functions of future male survival rates. The fan charts are based on a
version of the Cairns–Blake–Dowd model of male mortality that provides a good fit to recent mortality data for England andWales. They indicate
that although none of us can escape the Grim Reaper, survivorship uncertainty is greatest for males aged a little over 90, confirming that there
exists a ‘toxic tail’ for those institutions, such as annuity and pension providers, which are obliged to make payments to them for as long as they
live. We also find that taking account of uncertainty in the parameters of the underlying mortality model leads to major increases in estimates of
the widths of the fan charts.
