期刊名称：Discussion Papers / Ibero America Institute for Economic Research (IAI)
出版年度：2004
卷号：2004
出版社：Ibero America Institute for Economic Research
摘要：It is frequently suggested that export diversification
contributes to an acceleration of growth in developing countries. Horizontal
export diversification into completely new export sectors may generate positive
externalities on the rest of the economy as export oriented sectors gain from
dynamic learning activities due to contacts to foreign purchasers and exposure
to international competition. Vertical diversification out of primary into
manufactured exports is also associated with growth since primary export sectors
prevalently do not exhibit strong spillovers. Thus, it is to be expected that
both horizontal and vertical export diversification are positively correlated
with economic growth. Yet there have been remarkably few empirical
investigations into the link between export diversification and growth. This
paper attempts to examine the hypothesis that export diversification is linked
to economic growth via externalities of learning-by-doing and
learning-by-exporting fostered by competition in world markets. The
diversification-led growth hypothesis is tested by estimating an augmented
Cobb-Douglas production function on the basis of annual time series data from
Chile. Based on the theory of cointegration three types of statistical
methodologies are used: the Johansen trace-test, a multivariate error-correction
model and the dynamic OLS procedure. Given Chile's dramatic changes in economic
policy, time series techniques considering structural breaks are applied. The
estimation results suggest that export diversification plays an important role
in economic growth.
