期刊名称：Discussion Papers / Ibero America Institute for Economic Research (IAI)
出版年度：2005
卷号：2005
出版社：Ibero America Institute for Economic Research
摘要：In this paper, a real-financial CGE model is employed for
Bolivia to simulate the macroeconomic and distributional effects of exchange
rate policy in a highly dollarized economy. Overall, dollarization appears to
matter more through real than through financial-sector effects. The main
macroeconomic result of the simulations is that the potential of nominal
devaluation to smooth the adjustment path after a negative shock primarily
depends on the absence of wage indexation. Only if nominal wages are constant in
the short run, devaluation reduces unemployment and cushions the reduction of
real GDP induced by the shock. Financial de-dollarization tends to be
contractionary in Bolivia but different degrees of financial dollarization
hardly change the real sector effects. As concerns distributional effects,
nominal devaluation in no circumstance reduces the poverty effect of the
external shock. Even the significant short-run macroeconomic expansion that
occurs without wage indexation does not translate into significant poverty
alleviation, given the offsetting effects of devaluation on real factor incomes,
real interest incomes, and real transfers received by households.
关键词：Dollarization, Poverty, Computable General Equilibrium Model, Bolivia
