期刊名称：The Journal of International Trade and Diplomacy
印刷版ISSN：1306-1542
出版年度：2008
卷号：2
期号：2
页码：171-209
出版社：Ankara
摘要：Although Turkey has suffered from earlier current account deficits, the
current account position has worsened considerably since 2004. With
current account deficits breaching the conventional threshold of 5% of
GDP in the last few years, there has been a great deal of debate
regarding the sustainability of Turkey’s current account position and the
possibility of a crisis. The primary cause for concern is that the two
major crises that Turkey faced in 1994 and 2001 were preceded by high
current account deficits. The current account deficits facing Turkey since
2004 are more severe than those in previous periods, yet Turkey has
been able to avoid a crisis. This is because a high current account deficit
alone does not necessarily imply an unsustainable external position and
thus may not necessarily result in a crisis. Rather, there are a whole host
of factors that impact external sustainability. This paper examines the
factors that allowed Turkey to avoid a crisis from 2005 to 2007 despite
having such large current account deficits and explores the sustainability
of the current account position in the coming years.
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