期刊名称：The Journal of International Trade and Diplomacy
印刷版ISSN：1306-1542
出版年度：2007
卷号：1
期号：2
页码：139-158
出版社：Ankara
摘要：Among the world economies, Turkey’s experiences with foreign
exchange rate regimes are unique in several respects. After
experimenting with the fixed exchange rate for decades, Turkey
switched to an adjustable peg in 1980 and embarked on a significant
reform path, which continued till 1989. However, after the death of
President Turgut Özal and the resulting change in the government, the
economy plunged into severe crisis mostly due to large budget deficits,
which ended with a substantial devaluation of the Turkish Lira and a
stand-by agreement with the IMF. Notwithstanding this agreement,
inflation persisted. Hence, with a new stand-by agreement in 2001.
Turkey switched to a kind of pre-announced exchange rate regime in
which daily, weekly and monthly adjustments to the exchange rate were
kept below domestic inflation. Over a period of eighteen months the Lira
became overvalued drop-by-drop, and when the accumulated
imbalances and expectations of a devaluation reached a threshold level,
suddenly but not unexpectedly, substantial amounts of foreign capital
outflow occurred overnight, and the next day the markets experienced
an abnormal depreciation of the Lira. This was the November 2000 crisis.
However, neither the government nor the IMF realised that the exchange
rate system was unsustainable and both parties decided to stick to the
agreed program without giving up the policy of using the exchange rate as an anchor against inflation. For more details on the 1994 and 2001
crises, see Celasun (2002).
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