摘要：The global market conjuncture was favourable for the Lithuanian economy in 2005, but rising
inflation driven by high oil prices moderated the favourable impact of the recovering global
and neighbouring markets on domestic exporters. The increasing volatility of the US dollar exchange
rate vis-à-vis the euro influenced the US dollar-denominated assets of households and
enterprises. Recovering global economy and expectations of future inflation increases encouraged
the central banks in the US, euro area and Japan to revise their policy of “cheap” money
and to increase interest rates, which, in turn, determined the financial stance of enterprises and
households that had taken loans.
Strong growth of the Lithuanian economy in 2005 increased not only the disposable income of
households but also corporate profits thereby fostering formation of positive expectations with
regard to further development of the national economy. At the same time, however, a number
of factors that might exert increasingly stronger influence on the outlook for economic growth
emerged: growing labour force shortage, emigration, rising commodity prices, and persistent
imbalances in the real estate market. Corporate investment which, among other things, was
driven by the increasing need to raise labour productivity due to wage increases, emigration
and external competition, partly offset these factors. The above reasons are likely to further
promote fast growth of the loan portfolio to non-financial corporations in 2006.
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