期刊名称：Discussion Papers in Economics / Woodrow Wilson School
出版年度：2005
卷号：2005
出版社：Princeton
摘要：While this is typically ignored, the properties of the stochastic process followed
by aggregate consumption affect the estimates of the costs of fluctuations. This paper
pursues two approaches to modelling aggregate consumption dynamics and to measuring
how much society dislikes fluctuations, one statistical and one economic. The statistical
approach estimates the properties of consumption and calculates the cost of having
consumption fluctuating around its mean growth. The paper finds that the persistence
of consumption is a crucial determinant of these costs and that the high persistence
in the data severely distorts conventional measures. It shows how to compute valid
estimates and confidence intervals. The economic approach uses a calibrated model
of optimal consumption and measures the costs of eliminating income shocks. This
uncovers a further cost of uncertainty, through its impact on precautionary savings and
investment. The two approaches lead to costs of fluctuations that are higher than the
common wisdom, between 0.5% and 5% of per capita consumption.
关键词：Costs of fluctuations; Models of aggregate consumption; Consumption persistence.
