期刊名称：Discussion Papers / School of Business, University of New South Wales
出版年度：2008
卷号：2008
出版社：Sydney
摘要：In this paper we analyse a new Phillips curve (NPC) model and demonstrate
that (i) frictional growth, i.e. the interplay of wage-staggering and money growth,
generates a nonvertical NPC in the long-run, and (ii) the Phillips curve (PC) shifts
with productivity growth. On this basis we estimate a dynamic system of macrolabour
equations to evaluate the slope of the PC and explain the evolution of inflation
and unemployment in the US from 1970 to 2006. Since our empirical methodology
relies heavily on impulse response functions, it represents a synthesis of the traditional
structural modelling and (structural) vector autoregressions (VARs). We find that the
PC is downward-sloping with a slope of -3.58 in the long-run. Furthermore, during the
stagflating 70s, the productivity slowdown contributed substantially to the increases in
both unemployment and inflation, while the monetary expansion was quite ineffective
and led mainly to higher inflation. Finally, the monetary expansion and productivity
speedup of the roaring 90s were both responsible for the significant lowering of the
unemployment rate.
