期刊名称：Discussion Papers / School of Business, University of New South Wales
出版年度：2008
卷号：2008
出版社：Sydney
摘要：The conventional wisdom that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in
the long-run implies the compartmentalisation of macroeconomics. While one
branch of the literature models inflation dynamics and estimates the unemployment
rate compatible with inflation stability, another one determines the real
economic factors that drive the natural rate of unemployment. In the context of
the new Phillips curve (NPC), we show that frictional growth, i.e. the interplay
between lags and growth, generates an inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the
long-run. We thus argue that a holistic framework, like the chain reaction theory
(CRT), should be used to jointly explain the evolution of inflation and unemployment.
A further attraction of the CRT approach is that it provides a synthesis
of the traditional structural macroeconometric models and the (structural) vector
autoregressions (VARs)
关键词：Natural rate of unemployment, new Phillips Curve, frictional
growth, inflation-unemployment tradeoff, inflation dynamics, unemployment dynamics,
impulse response function.
