期刊名称：Discussion Papers / School of Business, University of New South Wales
出版年度：2008
卷号：2008
出版社：Sydney
摘要：The debate in Australia on the (constant-output) elasticity of labour demand with
respect to wages has wrongly sidelined the role of capital stock as a determinant of
employment (Webster, 2003). As far back as 1991, Pissarides had argued that the influence
of capital stock on the performance of the labour market is crucial but not well
understood, a research area which is particularly relevant for Australia. This paper attempts
to fill this void by estimating a multi-equation labour market model comprising
labour demand, wage setting and labour supply equations. The model is used to examine
the causes of the unemployment upturn in 1973-1983 and the subsequent decline
in 1993-2006. Our results show that (i) the main determinants of the unemployment
rise in the 1970s and early 1980s were wage-push factors, the two oil price shocks and
the increase in interest rates, and (ii) the acceleration in capital accumulation was the
crucial driving force of unemployment in the 1990s and 2000s. Furthermore, although
the recent boom in the terms of trade is equally important, its downward effect on
unemployment was partially reversed by the resulting decrease in net foreign demand.
关键词：Labour market dynamics, capital accumulation, chain reaction theory.
