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文章基本信息

  • 标题:Nonlinear Impacts of International Business Cycles on the UK — A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Deborah Gefang ; Rodney Strachan
  • 期刊名称:Discussion Papers / University of Leicester, Department of Economics
  • 出版年度:2008
  • 卷号:2008
  • 出版社:Leicester
  • 摘要:

    Employing a Bayesian approach, we investigate the impact of international business cycles on the UK economy in the context of a smooth transition VAR. We find that British business cycle is asymmetrically influenced by the US, France and Germany. Overall, positive and negative shocks generating in the US or France affect the UK in the same directions of the shock. Yet, a shock emanating from Germany always exerts negative accumulative effects on the UK. More strikingly, a positive shock arising from Germany negatively affects UK output growth more than a negative shock from Germany of the same size. These results suggest that the appropriate UK economic policy depends upon the origin, size and direction of the external shocks.

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