期刊名称：DIW Diskussionspapiere / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin
出版年度：2007
卷号：2007
出版社：Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin
摘要：We analyse benefit-entitlement effects and the likely impact of the recent
reform of the unemployment compensation system on the duration of unemployment
in Germany on the basis of a flexible discrete-time hazard rate model estimated
on pre-reform data from the German Socioeconomic Panel (SOEP). We find (i)
relatively strong benefit-entitlement effects for the unemployed who are
eligible to means-tested unemployment assistance after the exhaustion of
unemployment benefit, but not for those without such entitlement; (ii)
non-monotonic benefit-entitlement effects on hazard rates with pronounce spikes
around the month of benefit-exhaustion, and (iii) relatively small marginal
effects of the amount of unemployment compensation on the duration of
unemployment. Our simulation results show that the recent labour market reform
is unlikely to have a major impact on the average duration of unemployment in
the population as a whole, but will significantly reduce the level of long-term
unemployment among older workers.
关键词：unemployment duration, unemployment insurance, benefit-entitlement effects,
German labour market reforms, ex-ante evaluation, hazard rate model
