期刊名称：DIW Diskussionspapiere / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin
出版年度：2008
卷号：2008
出版社：Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin
摘要：We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case
and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a
strategic severallayer model of European gas supply, consisting of upstream
natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region),
and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall
supply situation of natural gas to Europe, indicating that current worries about
energy supply security issues may be overrated. LNG will likely increase its
share of European natural gas imports in the future, Russia will not dominate
the European imports (~ share of 1/3), the Middle East will continue to be a
rather modest supplier, the UK is successfully converting from being a natural
gas exporter to become a transit node for LNG towards continental Europe, and
congested pipeline infrastructure, and in some cases LNG terminals, will remain
a feature of the European gas markets, but less than in the current
situation.
