期刊名称：DIW Diskussionspapiere / Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin
出版年度：2008
卷号：2008
出版社：Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin
摘要：This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve
locations using the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The parameters
of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that
the parameters of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in
the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised by an increase both in
the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of a heat wave of the
Summer of 2003 using the fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence
of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat wave of
2003 appears not that statistically improbable event as it is generally accepted
in the relevant literature.
关键词：Climate change, GEV, Bayesian modelling, Great Alpine Heat Wave
