期刊名称：Hacienda Pública Española. Revista de Economía Pública
印刷版ISSN：0210-1173
出版年度：2007
卷号：2007
期号：182
页码：75-75
出版社：Ministerio de Hacienda, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales
摘要：The need for long-term fiscal projections is self evident. Of these projections, pension expenditure is one of the
most important since firstly it represents a large share of total expenditure, and secondly because of the positive
correlation between this variable and demographic ageing. In this paper, we develop a model to project contributory
pension expenditures in the Spanish Social Security System disaggregating the results by pension category, social
security regime and sex.
The most salient of the results obtained is the expected steady growth of total expenditure in contributory pensions.
This would lie around 15% of GDP around 2045 compared to its initial level of barely 8% even though the baseline
scenario incorporates a substantial recovery of employment and female participation rates. By pension categories,
retirement pensions are those that determine the tendency of total expenditure evolution. Interesting conclusions
can also be extracted from the analysis by sex. For instance, even accounting for an increase in female retirement
pensions due to their higher participation, the corresponding increase in widow male pensions implies a higher
total increase of the total number of contributory pensions accruing to men.
关键词：Pensions system, sustainability, public expenditure.
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