摘要：Droughts are of economic interest not because of the physical damage they cause, but because of the
financial consequences that result from the physical damage. This distinction is not trivial, as physical damage
may not result in economic loss. In an article recently published in Agricultural Policy for the 21st Century
(Iowa State University Press (ISUP)) and adapted for a forthcoming article in CHOICES, I discuss an empirical
finding that the price flexibility obtained by regressing the spring-to-harvest change in harvest futures price on
the spring-to-harvest change in average U.S. yield has not differed significantly from -1 over the period
beginning with the 1974 crop year for corn, cotton, oats, soybeans, and wheat. This finding implies that, on
average, the product of market-level price and market-level yield, i.e., average U.S. per acre cash receipt, does
not change as average U.S. yield changes from spring to harvest. The procedures are discussed briefly in the
appendix.
