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文章基本信息

  • 标题:Modeling Bank Senior Unsecured Ratings: A Reasoned Structured Approach to Bank Credit Assessment
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Spyros Pagratis ; Marco Stringa
  • 期刊名称:International Journal of Central Banking
  • 印刷版ISSN:1815-4654
  • 出版年度:2009
  • 卷号:2009
  • 期号:2
  • 出版社:IJCB Publications Fulfillment
  • 摘要:

    This paper studies the impact of bank-specific financial indicators and macroeconomic variables on bank senior unsecured ratings by Moody’s. Controlling for bank financial characteristics, we find significant evidence of procyclicality in bank ratings stemming from lagged interaction effects between the real output gap and the credit gap. In particular, macroeconomic slowdowns that follow credit booms tend to imply lower ratings. Similarly, when credit expansion above a trend is followed by strong economic performance, bank ratings tend to increase. Bank ratings also appear to correlate positively with the slope of the yield curve and tend to increase with sovereign ratings, market share of lending, and bank size. Given the ongoing debate on the importance, timeliness, and information content of credit ratings in general - and those assigned to banks in particular - the paper addresses a topic that is of great importance to central banks, regulators, and risk managers.

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