摘要：This research argues that the rapid expansion of international trade in the second phase
of the industrial revolution has played a significant role in the timing of demographic transi-
tions across countries and has thereby been a major determinant of the distribution of world
population and a prime cause of the Great Divergence in income per capita across countries in
the last two centuries. The theory suggests that international trade affected the evolution of
economies asymmetrically. The gains from trade were channeled towards population growth
in non-industrial nations while in the industrial nations they were directed towards investment
in education and growth in output per capita. International trade enhanced the specialization
of industrial economies in the production of skilled intensive goods. The rise in the demand
for skilled labor induced an investment in the quality of the population, expediting the demo-
graphic transition, stimulating technological progress and further enhancing the comparative
advantage of these industrial economies in the production of skilled intensive goods. In non-
industrial economies, in contrast, the specialization in the production of unskilled intensive
goods that was brought about by international trade reduced the demand for skilled labor and
provided limited incentives to invest in population quality. The gains from trade were uti-
lized primarily for an increase in the size of the population. The demographic transition was
therefore delayed, increasing further the abundance of unskilled labor in these economies and
enhancing their comparative disadvantage in the production of skilled intensive goods. The
focus on the interaction between population growth and comparative advantage generates an
important new insight regarding the distribution of the gains from trade. The theory suggests
that even if trade equalizes output growth of the trading countries, (due to the terms of trade
effect), income per capita of developed and less developed economies will diverge since in less
developed economies growth of total output will be generated primarily by population growth,
whereas in developed economies it will be generated by an increase in output per capita.
关键词：International Trade , Demographic Transition, Industrial Revolution, Growth,
Human Capital
