摘要：In order to fulfil its obligations regarding the supply of notes and coins, Norges Bank needs to hold cash
inventories. The level of inventories must be considered with regard to ordinary and extraordinary circum-
stances. In order to predict demand and reduce the uncertainty concerning inventory requirements, sound
models that can enhance the understanding of changes in cash circulation are required. The explanatory
variables for cash demand can be divided into three different groups: general macro-economic variables,
variables that express the competition between cash and deposits, and variables that may provide insight
into the illegal economy. A newly developed model for cash demand shows that demand for actual cash is
dependent on real consumption at the point of sale, bank interest rates and a negative linear trend that cap-
tures developments in the payment system, in addition to the historical value of real cash. The model-based
forecasts show that demand for cash will increase in the next quarters before decreasing towards the end of
2006 and further through 2007.
