摘要：This article examines whether financial variables are useful as leading indicators of the output gap and
mainland GDP growth. Financial variables may be leading indicators either because they (a) are priced on
the basis of expectations, (b) affect the economy with a lag or (c) are published earlier and more frequently
than GDP figures. Moreover, they are not subject to significant revisions. We find that house prices, equity
prices, credit growth, money growth, real exchange rates, real short-term interest rates and the difference
between long- and short-term interest rates can serve as leading indicators of GDP growth and/or the output
gap. The output gap is most strongly correlated with growth in domestic credit to enterprises (lagged 0–4
quarters) and cyclical fluctuations in equity prices (lagged 2–5 quarters). We include effects of equity prices
and enterprise credit in an econometric forecasting model of GDP. The model takes into account that equity
prices and credit growth may influence each other and that changes in GDP may feed back to financial vari-
ables. The model fits well and has stable coefficients.
