期刊名称：Selcuk Universitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitusu Dergisi
印刷版ISSN：1302-1796
出版年度：2009
期号：21
出版社：Selcuk University
摘要：With the globalization process, economic, commercial and technologic boundaries have become uncertain and in this way
capital transfer has been possible between different countries. Capital transfers which is realized through short term portfolio
investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) are very important especially for the countries of which national savings are
inadequate. Developing countries prefer mostly FDI. Because short term portfolio investment may affect the exchange rates
negatively by causing overvaluation for the home country’s national currency and damage the balance of current accounts. People
controlling the hot money may rapidly withdraw it when they decide that home country’s balance of current accounts is not
sustainable. This situation leads to deepen the crisis there. Therefore, developing countries campaign for attracting FDI generally.
The International Monetary Fund’s Balance of Payments Manual defines FDI as “an investment that is made to acquire a
lasting interest is an enterprise operating in an economy other than that of the investor, the investor’s purpose being to have an
effective voice in the management of the enterprise.” The basic reason of FDI is international profit differences. In other words,
it is because overseas profit is more than domestic one. Most of such investment is made by multinational enterprises. These
enterprises are managed by a single headquarter and make manufacturing in other countries.
FDI has different roles in a country’s development process. In developing countries adequate and necessary investment
cannot be realized since their domestic savings rate is low and foreign savings rate is very low. Here FDI helps diminish domestic
and foreign savings deficits. FDI provides a country with technology transfer and increase in employment as its reason of
existence is producing goods and services. FDI also helps increase in tax revenues since it raises the added value. Moreover, FDI
makes a contribution for making production more qualitative and workforce more productive. FDI has some positive effects on
home country’s economy, but it also has some negative effects on it. Some of these negative effects are foreign control on home
country’s key sectors; disordered economic integrity; abolition of protective foreign trade restrictions; providing unfair
competitive advantage; damaging balance of payments through profit transfers and creating technologic dependency for the home
country.
There are very different arguments about the effects of FDI on economic growth. In some of the empirical studies, there are
positive relationships between FDI and economic growth, but in some others exact opposite results can be seen. For example,
Afşar (2008) investigated the relationship between FDI and economic growth for the Turkish economy for the period 1992:1-
2006:3. The empirical results showed that there was a one-way relationship between FDI and economic growth and the direction
of this relationship was from FDI to economic growth. Alagöz, Erdoğan and Topallı (2008) examined the relationship between
FDI and economic growth for the period 1992-2007 in Turkey. The analysis showed that there was not any granger causality
relationship between FDI and economic growth. Also in this paper, 2002-2007 periods was studied by using regression analysis.
According to this analysis the effects of FDI on economic growth was found as medium intensive. Örnek (2008) analyzed the
causality relationship between foreign capital and domestic saving using time series data over the quarterly period 1996:4-2006:1 in
Turkey. Empirical evidence showed that FDI have positive and significance effects on domestic saving in both short and long-
run. However, short term capital inflows have negative effect on domestic savings in both short and long-run. Also, it has been
found that short term capital inflows and FDI have positive effect on economic growth.
In this paper, the objective is to analyze the relationship between FDI and economic growth in Turkey by using the data
covering the time period between 1992:1 and 2007:9.
Turkey is one of the powerful economies in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, The Black Sea and the Middle East. Turkish
economy is also one of the biggest commercial partners of the European Union. Capital account liberalization in Turkey was
initiated in conjunction with the process of economic and financial reforms that started in 1980, and was fully completed in 1989. Before 1980, capital flows were controlled through foreign exchange regulations. After 1980, capital account liberalization started
with the Decrees No 28 and 30, which were put into force in December 1983 and July 1984, respectively. These decrees partly
liberalized the capital accounts and full capital account liberalization was accomplished in 1989.
In order to analyze the relationship between FDI and economic growth econometrically in the process of financial
liberalization, the stationarity test, VAR model, co-integration test, Granger causality test, impulse-response functions and
variance decompositions are used. The first step in applying the co-integration test is to test for stationarity. The Augmented
Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron test statistics were used to test for stationarity of the data. It was found that the data were
stationary at level. After stationarity test, in order to estimate the VAR model, the optimal lag length was selected using the
information criteria. The SC criteria determined four lag length for the model. The VAR model was estimated with four lags. The
result of co-integration test showed that there was a long term equilibrium relationship between the foreign direct investment and
economic growth. According to Granger causality test there is a bidirectional relationship between FDI and economic growth.
Finally impulse-response functions and variance decompositions were used in the study. Impulse-response functions help
determine the extent to which a shock that hits one variable affects other variables in the VAR system. According to the impulse-
response functions, a positive shock FDI has a significant positive effect on the economic growth. Similarly a positive shock to
economic growth has a positive effect on FDI. Variance decompositions show the percentage of forecast variance in the variable
of the VAR that is explained by innovations of all variables within the VAR. The results from the variance decompositions show
that FDI explain a reasonable proportion of the forecast error variance in economic growth but explanatory power of economic
growth is lower.
关键词：Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Performance, Economic Growth
