期刊名称：IWH Diskussionspapiere / Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle
出版年度：2009
卷号：2009
出版社：Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle
摘要：We analyze the supply and demand of skilled labor in an East German federal state,
Thuringia. This state has been facing high unemployment in the course of economic
transformation and experiences population aging and shrinking more rapidly than most
West European regions. In a first step, we use extrapolation techniques to forecast labor
supply and demand for the period from 2009 to 2015, disaggregated by type of qualifi-
cation. The analysis does not corroborate the notion of an imminent skilled-labor short-
age but provides hints for a tightening labor market for skilled workers. In a second step,
we ask firms about their appraisal of future recruitment conditions, and both current and
planned strategies in the context of personnel management. The majority of firms plans
to expand further education efforts and to hire older workers. The study closes with pol-
icy recommendations to prevent occupational mismatch.
关键词：demographic change, labor demand for high-skilled workers, labor
force forecast, vocational training
