期刊名称:IoES Working Paper Series / Institute of Economic Studies, University of Iceland
出版年度:2009
卷号:2009
出版社:niversity of Iceland
摘要:This paper derives the relationship between central bank interest rates and exchange rates
under a capital control regime. Higher interest rate may strengthen the currency by
reducing consumption and imports and by inducing foreign owners of local currency
assets not to sell local currency off shore. There is also an effect that goes in the opposite
direction: Higher interest rates increase the flow of interest income to foreigners through
the current account which makes the exchange rate fall. The historical financial crisis
now under way in Iceland provides excellent testing grounds for the analysis. Overall, the
experience does not suggest that cutting interest rates moderately from a very high level
is likely to make a currency depreciate in a capital control regime but highlights the
importance of effective enforcing of the controls.
关键词:Financial crises, capital controls, policy rates, exchange rates.