摘要：Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead
to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by
the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information
provided by a Taylor rule model in which real time expected inflation and output are
used. We use five indicators of ECB communication that are all based on the ECB
President’s introductory statement at the press conference following an ECB policy
meeting. Our results suggest that even though the indicators are sometimes quite different
from one another, they add information that helps predict the next policy decision of the
ECB. Furthermore, also when the interbank rate is included in our Taylor rule model, the
ECB communication indicators remain significant.
