摘要：This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of an oil price shock in a small open
industrial economy without oil resources, namely, Switzerland. First, we test whether oil price
shocks Granger-cause Swiss macroeconomic variables, and use a medium-scale
macroeconometric model to track the effects of an oil price shock. Our estimates show that
large increases in oil prices lead to a rather small decline in Swiss real GDP. Furthermore,
there is no permanent pass-through effect via ‘core inflation’. Oil price shocks also adversely
affect Swiss exports, but imports also shrink and lessen the overall impact on real GDP
growth.
