摘要：This paper proposes a methodology that combines the use of Schwarz’s BIC in subset
autoregression and subset transfer function identification along with the posterior odds ratio test
developed by Poskitt & Tremayne (1987) in the context of testing for Granger-causality and
cointegration tests. This approach provides a measure for the strength (decisiveness) of causality
and cointegration between the variables of interest. As an illustration of our methodology, we re-
examine the case of bivariate relationship between money and income in Canada.
关键词：Schwarz criterion, Cointegration, Granger-causality, Posterior odds ratio, Money-
Income Causality
