出版社：Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, Potsdam
摘要：Russia has benefited from high oil prices and as a result experienced a five-
year period of strong economic growth, fuelled largely by the natural resources sector. This
period of “cheap” economic growth has come to an end. Structural changes with regard to
better capacity utilization of capital stock and higher labour productivity have to take place
in order to put the country on track to long term growth and catching up. Future growth
also depends on a more diversified production structure, decreasing the relative importance
of the natural resources sector. However, investment and in particular FDI as well as the
development of exports have signified a development in the opposite direction over the
past years. However 2002 may have been a turning point with a stronger Ruble and
shifting prices of natural resources accompanying a distinct upward trend both in
productivity and industrial output. Therefore talking of dutch disease seems to be
inappropriate for Russia at least on a macroeconomic level. Nevertheless, reforms in the
public sector and among Russia’s weak banking sector are necessary to guide the country
on the road to sustained high per capita growth rates.
