出版社：Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, Potsdam
摘要：This paper analyses key issues of structural change and specialization
patterns in the economies of an enlarged European Union. In all transition countries we
observe a shift from the agricultural and industrial sector towards the service sector in
terms of employment and productivity; however, in some countries a reindustrialisation
drives is observed in a late transition stage. While some countries namely the Czech
Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Estonia and Slovenia, have improved their
productivity especially in medium-technology-intensive industries and may advance on the
technological ladder, others remain unchanged and seem to get locked in labour-intensive
industrial sectors. In the context of EU-enlargement, we expect trade creation – going
along with a rise of intra-industry trade – and higher FDI-activities. Countries will have to
adjust along the logic of comparative advantage, however, technological upgrading and
human capital formation are fields in which government can stimulate the direction of
comparative advantage. According to the Gerschenkron-hypothesis the accession countries
have an “advantage of backwardness. Since accession countries have a low R&D-GDP
ratio in the early transition stage rising government expenditures on research and
development plus higher education is crucial. We expect the EU-15 countries in general to
benefit from enlargement but gains will be asymmetric across countries: economic
geography matters. Austria, Germany, the Scandinavian countries, the Netherlands, Italy
and France are likely to profit more than the other members of EU-15. Germany and
Austria additionally play a particularly crucial role as origins of FDI. Future research
should focus on the speed and the scope of structural adjustment.
