出版社：Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, Potsdam
摘要：With EU eastern enlargement several exchange rate issues are associated.
First, countries that are expected to catch up in terms of per capita income will experience
a relative rise of the nontradables price – the well-known Balassa Samuelson effect; this
corresponds to a fall of relative tradables prices which could stimulate economic
modernization in the context of rising imports of capital equipment. The development of
the nominal and real effective exchange rate will be important for accession countries for
various reasons, including effects on real income and the real value of foreign debt (the
latter has a feed back effect on the exchange rate), the incentive for foreign direct
investment inflows and pressure for productivity growth plus product differentiation.
Foreign firms from th e US, EU-15 and Japan might pursue different degrees of pricing to
market behaviour – and this implies certain corresponding real exchange rate changes - so
that the composition of FDI inflows will affect real exchange rate volatility in eastern
Europe. From a Schumpeterian perspective EU eastern enlargement will stimulate
relocation of manufacturing industry towards accession countries, however, using the
KLODT’s distinction between mobile technology intensive industries and immobile
Schumpeter industries one may anticipate asymmetric options for relocation across sectors
in EU-25. Several links between innovativeness and exchange rate developments are
discussed; overshooting problems are a potential challenge for countries embracing a
higher degree of exchange rate flexibility in the early years of EU membership. Moreover,
we focus on the role of alternative exchange rate regimes in the course of economic
catching up and innovation dynamics, respectively. Finally, some refinements for the
Balassa Samuelson approach are suggested.
