出版社：Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, Potsdam
摘要：This paper analyses recent economic trends in Russia, evaluates the fiscal per-
formance and discusses the growth potential and issues of capital flight. There has been
considerable growth of industrial output between 1999 and 2002. Investment and industrial
output are strongly correlated as is industrial output and the oil price. As regards budget
revenues, the oil price development is quite important. This paper discusses the tax struc-
ture and the expenditure side of the government budget, in particular the size of debt ser-
vice payments requiring a structural budget surplus at the federal government level. Em-
ployment has started to increase in 2000 so that a long term negative employment devel-
opment has changed. Issues of the current account and the exchange rate dynamics are also
considered. The analysis compares long term output growth and investment growth in Rus-
sia and the US. Finally, perspectives of chaebolization of the Russian economy are dis-
cussed.
