期刊名称：Discussion Papers / University of Leicester, Department of Economics
出版年度：2000
卷号：2000
出版社：Leicester
摘要：Fol l ow i ng t he r ecent wor k of Dhi r i et al( 1999) at t he Home Of f i ce pr edi ct i ng r ecor ded
bur gl ar y and t hef t f or Engl and and Wal es t o t he year 2001, econom et r i c and t i me ser i es
m odel s have been const r uct ed f or pr edi ct i ng r ecor ded r esi dent i al bur gl ar y t o t he sam e
dat e. A com par i son bet w een t he Home Of f i ce econom et r i c pr edi ct i ons and t he l ess
al ar mi ng econom et r i c pr edi ct i ons made i n t hi s paper i dent i f i es t he di f f er ences as
st emmi ng f r om t he par t i cul ar set of var i abl es used i n t he m odel s. However , t hese
econom et r i c m odel s adopt an er r or -cor r ect i on f or m whi ch appear s i n bot h cases t o be t he
mai n r eason w hy t he m odel s pr edi ct i ncr eases i n bur gl ar y. To i dent i f y t he r ol e of er r or -
cor r ect i on i n t hese m odel s, t i me ser i es m odel s have been bui l t f or t he pur pose of
com par i son, al l of whi ch pr edi ct subst ant i al l y l ow er num ber s of r esi dent i al bur gl ar i es. The
next t hr ee year s w oul d appear t o of f er an oppor t uni t y t o t est t he ut i l i t y of er r or -cor r ect i on
m odel s i n t he anal ys i s of cr i mi nal behavi our .
关键词：Resi dent i al Bur gl ar y: er r or -cor r ect i on; t i me ser i es f or ecast i ng
