期刊名称：Economics Discussion Papers / Department of Economics, College of Management and Economics, University of Guelph
出版年度：2005
卷号：2005
出版社：University of Guelph
摘要：Annual global CO2 emission forecasts at 2100 span 10 to 40 billion tonnes. Modeling work over
the past decade has not narrowed this range nor provided much guidance about probabilities. We
examine the time-series properties of historical per capita CO2 emissions and conclude that per
capita global emissions are stationary without trend, and have a constant mean of 1.14 tonnes per
person with standard deviation of 0.02. With estimates of 21st
century peak population levels in
the 8-10 billion range, this implies that most emissions scenarios currently used for global
warming forecasts are unrealistically high.
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