摘要：Since 1945, the US dollar has been the key or
reserve-currency of the international financial
system. The chronic and ongoing series of large US
current-account deficits from 1983 through 2004
(with a negligible exception in 1991) has now placed
the US dollar in a vulnerable position. The cumulative
deficits at annual rates of over $0.5 trillion in
2003 and 2004 threaten the currency’s ability to
maintain the confidence that is necessary for it to
continue as the reserve-currency. Easily-encashable
dollar-denominated assets owned by private nonresidents
comprise Treasury debt, corporate stocks
and bonds, and currency.These assets have increased
from just under $2.25 trillion in 1997 to over $4 trillion
at the end of 2003 (not including the liabilities of
banks and other financial intermediaries to private
non-residents). At the same time, the net international
investment position of the United States1 has
worsened to approximately minus $2.5 trillion.
Continuing large current account deficits by the
United States will increase its net indebtedness. It
will ultimately cause private owners of dollardenominated
securities, non-residents and residents
alike, to anticipate still further losses as the dollar
continues to weaken in foreign-exchange markets
and/or as interest rates rise to attract or retain foreign
financial capital.The process is likely to become
self-reinforcing as both components of the values of
the securities to foreign residents, the domestic price
in dollars and the dollar’s rate of exchange against
the home currency, will decline. In this way, net sales
will reinforce pessimistic expectations and encourage
further sales. US residents, who are pessimistic
about the dollar, will also have their expectations
strengthened and will be tempted to take positions
in securities denominated in foreign currencies to
safeguard their individual wealth.
