期刊名称：Discussion Paper Series / Economics Department, University of Swansea
出版年度：2003
卷号：1
出版社：University of Swansea
摘要：An ordered probit regression model estimated using 15 years’ data is used to model English league
football match results. As well as past match results data, the significance of the match for end-ofseason
league outcomes; the involvement of the teams in cup competition; the geographical distance
between the two teams’ home towns; and the average attendances of the two teams all contribute to
the model’s performance. The model is used to test the weak-form efficiency of prices in the fixedodds
betting market, and betting strategies with a positive expected return are identified.
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