期刊名称：Discussion Paper Series / Department of Economics, New York University
出版年度：2006
卷号：1
出版社：New York University
摘要：It seems to be taken for granted by many commentators that the
sharp decline in prices of computers, telecommunications equipment
and software resulting from the technological improvements in the information
and communications technology (ICT)-producing sector is
good for jobs and is a major driving force behind the non-inflationary
employment miracle and booming stock market in the latter half of
the nineties in the U.S. and their recurrence since 2004. We show that,
in our model, a technical improvement in the ICT-producing sector by
itself cannot explain a simultaneous increase in employment and a rise
in firms’ valuation (or Tobin’s Q ratio). There are two cases. If the elasticity of equipment price (pI ) with respect to ICT-producing sector’s
productivity is less than one, labor’s value marginal productivity
increases thus pulling up the demand wage and expanding employment.
However, the increased output by adding to the capital stock
and thus driving down future capital rentals causes a decline in firms’
valuation, q per unit, even though Tobin’s Q (= q=pI ) is up. If the
elasticity is greater than one, equipment prices fall so dramatically
that labor’s value marginal productivity declines, employment in the
ICT-using sector expands proportionately more than the increase in
capital stock, thus raising future capital rentals, so both firms’ valuation
and Tobin’s Q rise; but then real demand wage falls and employment
contracts. The key to generating a booming stock market
alongside employment expansion is to hypothesize that when technical
improvement in the ICT-producing sector occurs, the market forms an
expectation of future productivity gains to be reaped in the ICT-using
sector. Then we can explain not only the stock market boom and associated
rise in investment spending and employment in the period
1995-2000 but also the subsequent decline in employment, in Tobin’s
Q and in investment spending in 2001, with consumption holding up
well as productivity gains in the ICT-using sector were realized. An
anticipation of a future TFP improvement in the ICT-using sector can
once more play the role of raising the stock market.
关键词：Business asset valuation, Tobin’s Q, investment spending,
employment
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